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JAMMU, JUNE 06:–The BJP managed leads in 29 out of 43 Assembly segments in Jammu division even as in two Parliamentary Constituencies of Jammu-Reasi and Udhampur-Doda which together accounted for 36 Assembly seats, there was joint candidate of the Opposition (the Congress) backed by both National Conference and People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The lead, as per the political observers, could have been in some more segments for the BJP especially in seven Assembly segments in the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch falling under Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary constituency had the party fielded its own candidate as figures revealed that Pahari and Hindu voters in these two districts didn’t accept Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) candidate Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, supported by the BJP.
It was the National Conference which secured healthy leads in all seven Assembly constituencies in Rajouri and Poonch districts.
In 18 Assembly segments of Udhampur-Doda Parliamentary seat, Union Minister and BJP candidate Dr Jitendra Singh secured leads in 14 while his Congress rival Choudhary Lal Singh led in remaining four. Former Minister and DPAP candidate Ghulam Mohammad Saroori couldn’t take lead even in Inderwal Assembly constituency which he represented in the Legislative Assembly thrice including 2002, 2008 and 2014 and also served as Minister.
In Jammu-Reasi Parliamentary seat, BJP’s Jugal Sharma took lead in 15 seats while Congress nominee Raman Bhalla, a former Minister got the lead in rest of the three Assembly constituencies.
However, there were signs of worry for the BJP on Jammu-Reasi seat as the party not only trailed in two Hindu dominated segments but also had very narrow leads in four other seats including City East, Nagrota, Ramgarh and Bahu, which are considered as very strongholds of the party. Jugal represented Nagrota Assembly seat twice in 2002 and 2008 before being elected to Lok Sabha in 2014, 2019 and 2024.
While BJP was behind the Congress by about 37,000 votes in Muslim dominated Gulabgarh Assembly seat in Reasi district, it also trailed to Congress in Suchetgarh and RS Pura-Jammu South constituencies by about 5,000 and 7,000 votes respectively. Both these segments are Hindu dominated and were held by the BJP in 2014 when last Assembly elections were held in erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir.
Significantly, BJP’s lead in Jammu East, a stronghold of the party, was confined to just around 12,000 while it was just 1000 in Bahu, nearly 8,000 in Nagrota and 1600 in Ramgarh. BJP had won all these seats in 2014 though their names have now been changed after delimitation of Assembly constituencies following abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J&K into two Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh in August 2019.
The BJP had, however, impressive leads in other Assembly constituencies including Reasi (about 10,000), Shri Mata Vaishno Devi (13,000),Samba (15,000), Vijaypur (7,000), Bishnah (5000), Jammu West (21,000), Jammu North (22,000), Marh (15,000), Akhnoor (16,000), Chhamb, 17,000) and Kalakote-Sunderbani (15,000).
BJP won Jammu seat by a margin of 1,35,498 votes as against 3,02,875 in 2019.
Only other candidate to reach five digit mark in Jammu seat was Jagdish Raj of the BSP, who polled 10,300 votes.
Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh led in 14 Assembly segments of Udhampur-Doda constituency while his immediate rival and former Minister had leads in only four Assembly seats. Lal Singh trailed even in his traditional Basohli segment which his family represented four times (three times he himself and once his wife Kanta Andotra).
Lal Singh had lead of around 5,000 votes in Inderwal, about 700 in Bhaderwah, about 18,000 in Doda and around 38,000 in Banihal.
Former Minister Ghulam Mohammad Saroori (DPAP) who polled 39,512 votes got highest of 10,373 in Inderwal but was behind Dr Jitendra Singh who secured 11,671 votes there. Most of Saroori’s votes came from erstwhile Doda district. In rest of the seats of Udhampur-Doda, Saroori’s votes were in three digits only which indicated that Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party failed to have any impact in Udhampur and Doda districts. Even the votes secured by Saroori in Inderwal were due to his personal influence as he has represented the seat as Congress candidate thrice. In Azad’s hometown of Bhaderwah, Saroori polled just 4399 votes as against 34402 of Dr Jitendra Singh and 35131 of Lal Singh.
Dr Jitendra Singh had a lead of around 5,000 in Kishtwar, 4000 in Padder Nagseni, 4000 in Doda West and 7,000 in Ramban.
In Udhampur district, Dr Jitendra Singh had significant leads of 27,000 in Udhampur West, around 24,000 in Udhampur East, 25,000 in Chenani and 12,000 in Ramnagar. In Kathua district, the BJP leader led by around 9,000 in Bani, 24,000 in Billawar, 14,000 in Basohli, 9,000 in Jasrota, 8,000 in Kathua and 12,000 in Hiranagar.
The BJP leads in Jammu and Udhampur Lok Sabha seats assumed significance as Congress candidates had the backing of NC and PDP. In turn, Congress didn’t field any candidate on three Parliamentary seats of Kashmir.
However, in the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch whose seven seats have been clubbed in South Kashmir’s Anantnag Parliamentary constituency, the BJP hadn’t fielded its candidate in the Lok Sabha seat but was supporting Apni Party’s Zaffar Iqbal Manhas.
In all seven seats, NC candidate Mian Altaf who won Anantnag constituency, took impressive leads, Manhas finished second in three seats while Mehbooba Mufti, former Chief Minister and PDP president, came second in four.
Worthwhile to mention here that Sunderbani-Kalakote constituency which is also part of Rajouri district but falls in Jammu-Reasi seat, the BJP secured a lead of around 15,000 votes over the Congress.
Though Nowshera Assembly seat, represented by BJP president Ravinder Raina in 2014 is also Hindu dominated seat, but it was Mian Altaf who secured a lead of around 3,000 votes over Manhas. Altaf polled 27,388 votes as against 24,357 of Manhas and 3339 of Mehbooba.
In Rajouri, Altaf secured 35,339 votes as against 20,373 of Manhas and 3124 of Mehbooba while in Budhal, NC polled 44,920 votes as against 10552 of Manhas and 5294 of Mehbooba.
In Thannamandi, NC secured 53,751 votes while Mehbooba got 13,774 and Manhas took 12,802 while in Surankote, Altaf mustered 49,425 votes, Mehbooba 17,989 and Manhas 6059. In Poonch Haveli also, Altaf topped with 47424 votes followed by 18456 secured by Mehbooba and 13445 by Manhas. In Mendhar, Altaf got 41796 votes followed by 26483 by Mehbooba and 4938 by Manhas.
The fact that Zaffar Manhas trailed even in Nowshera seat as well as all other Assembly seats of Rajouri and Poonch districts which have significant number of Pahari votes was clear indication that Paharis as well as other core BJP voters didn’t shift fully towards Manhas.
The BJP leaders are of the view that situation would have been different had the BJP put up its own candidate on Anantnag-Rajouri seat.
Pahari’s were given ST status and 10 percent reservations by the Central Government before Lok Sabha elections.
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